Thursday, 11 June 2009

Dead Cats a Bouncing?

Pound at its strongest against the Euro since start of 2009, signs in some latest surveys that the economy grew (fractionally) in March and April, and Ronaldo being transferred for a champagne popping £80 million from Man U to Real Madrid - signs that the recession is all but over?

Well that was quick wasn't it?

Not quite.

Green shoots are sprouting everywhere but some reasons to be suspicious:

1. London is suffering the second day of a tube strike induced by members of the RMT union who are demanding a gravity defying 5% pay rise. 1970s all over again?

2. The West Bromwich Building Society (Britain's 8th biggest) looks set to be rescued within days by the Bank of England - the latest failed institution which dabbled a little too far into the black arts of property speculation at the height of the boom.

3. I have just come back from a property seminar day and talk within the commercial property sector remains of a protracted slump as the Bank's continue to rescure their battered balance sheets and sleep walk into a "lost decade".

So to be gloomy or optimistic?

Well, we look set for a few months of growth at least, but the V shaped recession looks ever more likely to be a W come the Autumn. Then many commentators are expecting inflation, or worse stagflation, to see us into a double dip. As for industries dependent on debt (for which read commercial property) only rights issues will get more liquidity in the market anytime soon.

The classic dead cat bounce.

Don't take my word for it - a Noble Laureate is saying just this today too glancing across at other countries ongoing dismal economic news - not good for British exporters at a time when the pound is on rebound:

Oh, and as for a residential property recovery - personally I am not believing a word of it. The long term trend has to be further falls come late Autumn and Winter.

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